A new study suggests that the
Southern African region could be among the hardest hit areas by any potential
climate change in the next 50 years. The study, published by the International
Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and with contributions from scientists
in countries across the southern Africa region, uses available data and a
variety of models to examine likely agricultural developments, particularly
related to crops, in the period to 2050.
The study says climate change,
with rising temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns across much
of the region, will likely cause a decline in average maize and sorghum yields.
However, some areas, such as southern Mozambique, will see a growth in
harvests. Wheat harvests could be particularly vulnerable to rising
temperatures.
Extreme weather events – such as
droughts, floods and changes in the frequency and intensity of dry spells –
already negatively affect agriculture in most parts of Africa, says the study.
Agriculture is the primary source
of employment and income for most of the rural population in southern Africa.
In Malawi about 40% of gross domestic product (GDP) comes from
agriculture. In Zimbabwe, about 80% of
the population depends directly on agriculture.
More than 50% of agricultural
land in the area is devoted to cereal crops, with maize accounting for more
than 40% of the total harvested area. Millet and sorghum are also important
crops, especially in drier areas. Some countries in the region, such as
Botswana and Lesotho, already struggle to meet demand for maize and sorghum and
have to import large amounts, mainly from South Africa.
Original article: http://www.eco-business.com/news/climate-threat-southern-africas-crops/
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